Voters in three crucial ridings across Ontario and Quebec are heading into the final hours of advance polling, with stakes high for Prime Minister Mark Carney as he eyes a potential majority government.
Advance polls in Scarborough Southwest and University–Rosedale in the Greater Toronto Area, along with Terrebonne in Quebec, are set to close at 9 p.m. Monday. These byelections, officially scheduled for April 13, could significantly alter the balance of power in the House of Commons.
The early voting period, which began last Friday, offers residents an opportunity to cast their ballots ahead of election day. Those who miss advance polls can still vote at local Elections Canada offices until Tuesday evening or apply for mail-in ballots before the deadline.
The Terrebonne contest has drawn particular attention after an unusual legal twist overturned the previous election result. The Supreme Court of Canada nullified the Liberal candidate’s narrow one-vote victory following a challenge by the Bloc Québécois. The dispute stemmed from a rejected mail-in ballot, raising concerns over vote handling and prompting a fresh race in the riding.
In Toronto, the byelections were triggered by high-profile departures. Former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland vacated her University–Rosedale seat after stepping into an international advisory role with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and taking on leadership of the Rhodes Trust. Meanwhile, Scarborough Southwest opened up after Bill Blair was appointed Canada’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom.
The Liberal Party is widely expected to retain both Toronto ridings, traditionally considered strongholds. If successful, those wins alone would bring the party’s seat count to 172 technically enough for a majority in the 338-seat House.
However, parliamentary realities complicate the picture. Since the Speaker typically abstains from voting except in tie-breaking situations, even a 172-seat tally does not guarantee smooth passage of legislation. The government would still need at least one opposition vote or abstention to secure approval on key measures.
That leaves Terrebonne as the potential battleground. A Liberal victory there would provide an additional cushion, strengthening the government’s ability to govern without relying on opposition support.
According to polling aggregator 338 Canada, the race in Terrebonne remains too close to call, with both the Liberals and Bloc Québécois locked in a tight contest.
As voters make their final decisions, the outcome of these byelections could have consequences far beyond the three ridings shaping not only parliamentary arithmetic but also the stability of Carney’s government in the months ahead.
