Canada’s housing market is finally showing signs of life again, but let’s not get carried away: this is no roaring comeback. Instead, what we’re seeing feels more like a slow stretch after a long nap movement, yes, but far from full strength.
According to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), 42,068 homes changed hands in October. That’s 4.3% fewer than last year, reminding us just how cool the market has been. But here’s the twist: sales actually inched upward by 0.9% compared to September. It’s the sixth monthly increase in seven months a clear sign the demand side of the market is warming up.
CREA economist Shaun Cathcart even noted that with interest rates “almost in stimulative territory,” activity should continue picking up as we move toward 2026. That’s a hopeful message, but one overshadowed by the reality that economic uncertainty still casts a long shadow over the market.
The good news for sellers is that tighter conditions in several regions including places like Regina have created mini–seller’s markets. Regina agent Chad Ehman describes exactly what you’d expect: well-priced homes getting multiple offers and buyers worn down from repeated bidding wars. That’s great if you’re handing over the keys, not so great if you’re one of the many trying (and failing) to buy.
Nationally, new listings fell 1.4% from September, even as the total number of available properties rose 7.2% compared with last year. More supply sounds like a relief, but demand is also rising and in some places faster than sellers can keep up.
TD economist Rishi Sondhi sums it up well: the “recovery narrative” is intact, but calling it a strong recovery would be generous. Sales remain low by historical standards, and the market still feels fragile. Yet he also sees room for cautious optimism, with pent-up demand and improving job conditions likely nudging sales upward next year.
As for prices, the story is mixed. The national average home price dipped 1.1% year-over-year to $690,195. CREA’s home price index (a better measure of “typical” homes) ticked up slightly month-over-month but is still 3% lower than last year. Tight markets across much of the country may support modest price growth, but in B.C. and Ontario where buyers finally have a bit more leverage price gains are likely to stay muted.
So where does all this leave us?
Canada’s housing market is undeniably moving in the right direction after a sluggish year, but it’s doing so cautiously, unevenly, and under the weight of broader economic uncertainty. Sellers in certain markets may feel upbeat, but buyers are still grinding through fatigue, inflation pressure, and competition for limited well-priced listings.
Yes, the market is waking up but it hasn’t had its coffee yet.
