Premier Doug Ford and Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives appear to be in a strong position with voters as speculation mounts over a possible early provincial election, according to a new poll by Liaison Strategies.
The survey of 1,245 Ontario voters found that among those who are decided or leaning, 40 per cent would support Ford and the PCs. That compares with 27 per cent for the Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, and 21 per cent for the New Democrats under Marit Stiles. The Green Party trailed at six per cent.
The results mark a modest boost for the governing party. Support for the PCs is up two points from a similar Liaison Strategies poll conducted in July, while Liberal support has slipped by two points over the same period. Still, a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, with about 21 per cent of respondents saying they have yet to make up their minds.
When all voters are counted, including the undecided, the PCs lead with 33 per cent support. The Liberals follow at 21 per cent, the NDP at 16 per cent, and the Greens at four per cent.
“As early election speculation continues the Ford PCs are in a comfortable lead and would earn a majority government if the election were held today,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, in a statement accompanying the poll. He noted that while the PCs are performing well across much of the province, races remain tight in several key regions, including northern Ontario, Toronto, and south-central Ontario.
Even so, Valentin pointed out that the party’s numbers in Toronto have improved in recent months, and the PCs are currently leading in the crucial 905 region surrounding the city.
Ontario’s next fixed election date is scheduled for June 2026, but Ford has repeatedly declined to say whether he will stick to that timeline. His reluctance to commit has fueled speculation that voters could be heading to the polls sooner.
The poll also examined leaders’ personal favourability. Ford received a favourable rating from 28 per cent of respondents, narrowly ahead of Crombie at 27 per cent, Stiles at 24 per cent, and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner at 23 per cent. However, Ford also registered the highest unfavourable rating, with 65 per cent viewing him negatively, compared with 42 per cent for Crombie, 22 per cent for Stiles, and 19 per cent for Schreiner.
Regionally, PC support was strongest in southwestern Ontario, where the party holds a 19-point lead over the NDP. In Toronto, the PCs trail the Liberals by just three points a difference within the margin of error putting the parties in a statistical tie. In the 905 region, the PCs lead with 45 per cent support, compared with 39 per cent for the Liberals.
The poll was conducted on behalf of the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada using interactive voice response technology on Aug. 19 and 20. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.71 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, with higher margins for smaller sub-samples.
