For a brief moment over the Nov. 29–30 weekend, Calgary drivers felt like they had stepped back in time. Gas stations across parts of the city were flashing prices as low as 99.9 cents per litre a psychological threshold many thought they’d never see again.
But according to Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy and one of the country’s most reliable voices on fuel pricing, this wasn’t a sign of true market relief. It was a stunt a temporary dip fueled by a classic gas price war.
McTeague calls it “gas bar shenanigans,” and frankly, that description feels spot-on. When a station sells fuel for 10 to 15 cents below what it actually costs to buy, the math simply doesn’t add up. The only way these operators survive such losses is through dealer support essentially subsidies from refineries riding strong crack spreads and covering short-term losses in exchange for long-term market share.
And that’s the real game. Sell cheap, draw crowds, boost volume, secure discounts, and cement customer loyalty. But once the war ends and it always does stations snap right back to prices that reflect reality.
The real cost picture isn’t a mystery. McTeague breaks it down – Wholesale fuel cost to Calgary stations: ~80 cents/L, Alberta fuel tax: 13 cents, Federal excise tax: 10 cents and GST: about 5 cents.
That already places the station’s cost around $1.08–$1.09 before accounting for staff wages, utilities, credit card fees, loan payments, and a basic operating margin. A truly sustainable retail price, he says, is closer to $1.17–$1.20 per litre and that’s precisely where prices are expected to settle again before Christmas.
So while Calgary may currently be benefiting from broader downward pressure cheaper U.S. crude, the absence of a consumer carbon tax, and aggressive competition none of this changes the fundamental economics of running a gas station. And the moment the Chicago spot market ticks upward, or the price war fizzles, these bargain-bin prices will vanish.
In other words: enjoy the dollar-a-litre nostalgia while it lasts. It’s not a trend it’s a tease.
As for the long-term outlook? Even McTeague won’t guess. Fuel prices remain a tight knot of geopolitics, refinery margins, supply chains, market psychology, and competition. “You can’t predict what’s in the mind of a gas station that expects to lose 10 to 15 cents a litre,” he says and in a market this turbulent, that uncertainty might be the most honest observation of all.
For now, Calgary drivers should take advantage of the dip, fill up when the rare deals appear, and prepare themselves for the return to reality. The cheap gas era is not back it’s just visiting.
