As Pierre Poilievre approaches his 2026 leadership review, a new Abacus Data poll paints a picture that is both reassuring and quietly alarming for the Conservative leader. On the surface, the numbers look solid: two-thirds of Conservative voters say they would keep him as leader. Among those who have firmly made up their minds, that support climbs to 75 percent.
But depending on how you read these numbers, they can either signal stability or the early signs of a slow political erosion.
Poilievre entered the Conservative leadership in 2022 with overwhelming party support, securing 68 percent on the first ballot, far ahead of his rivals. At the time, he was the insurgent voice rallying a restless Conservative base, and for many members, he represented both a break from the party’s past and a chance to reshape its future.
Fast-forward to today, and the picture is more complicated. A year ago, an Ipsos poll showed 91 percent of Conservative members wanted Poilievre to lead the party into the next election. That sky-high approval was buoyed by widespread anger toward Justin Trudeau and a sense that the Conservatives finally had a leader capable of harnessing it.
But politics moves fast and loyalty even faster. With Trudeau gone, replaced by Mark Carney, the national political landscape has shifted dramatically. And Poilievre’s numbers have slipped accordingly.
The Abacus poll shows that among all Canadians not just Conservatives 44 percent would vote to remove him as leader, compared to only 37 percent who would keep him. Positive impressions (39 percent) are now overshadowed by negative ones (42 percent). Carney, meanwhile, has the advantage of being newer, calmer, and crucially less polarizing, earning a stronger positive impression among Canadians.
Even more striking is the national voting intention: a near dead heat between Liberals (41 percent) and Conservatives (40 percent). That’s an astonishing turnaround after years of Conservative dominance in public polling under Poilievre. It raises the uncomfortable question: has his appeal plateaued?
And then there’s the symbolic blow that cannot be ignored Poilievre losing his long-held Carleton seat in the April election. Yes, he regained a seat in Alberta by a huge margin in a byelection. But the fact remains: the leader of the Conservative Party lost his home riding in the middle of a campaign he was supposed to win. That’s not a small footnote; it’s a flashing warning sign.
As the party prepares for its national convention in Calgary in January, the question is not whether Poilievre still has strong support among Conservatives he undeniably does. The question is whether that support is as durable as it once seemed, and whether it will be enough to carry him through a landscape that is increasingly less forgiving.
Poilievre’s political brand has long been built on the idea of momentum: the fighter, the outsider, the relentless critic of Liberal governance. But now that the Liberals have changed their face, and Canadians are reassessing their political choices, Poilievre faces a different test not of attack, but of endurance.
His 42-point advantage among Conservative members suggests he’s safe for now. But the cracks in national support, the loss of his Ontario seat, and the shifting attitudes inside the broader Conservative base hint at something deeper: a party loyal to its leader but no longer united in belief that he is the inevitable next prime minister.
2026 could be a turning point. Whether it’s a renewal of Poilievre’s authority or the beginning of an internal reckoning still depends on whether he can convince not just Conservatives, but Canadians, that his time hasn’t already passed.
