By now, it’s clear that Ontario’s economy isn’t just tightly linked to the U.S.—it’s practically tethered. A new report from the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO) lays out a sobering scenario: more than 68,000 Ontario jobs could vanish by the end of 2025, all because of newly announced U.S. tariffs. Stretch that timeline out a few years, and we’re staring down the barrel of 137,900 lost jobs. That’s not just a statistic—that’s tens of thousands of families, careers, and futures thrown into uncertainty.
The FAO’s April 30 report, The Potential Impact of US Tariffs on the Ontario Economy, should be setting off alarm bells in Queen’s Park. Based on the U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, vehicles, and auto parts announced on April 17—and Canada’s inevitable retaliation—the report forecasts a cascading impact on Ontario’s workforce, exports, and overall economic growth.
Let’s talk numbers: 77 percent of Ontario’s exported goods and 60 percent of exported services go straight to the U.S. This relationship is foundational to our economy. In 2024, a staggering one in nine jobs in Ontario was tied to U.S. exports. Manufacturing leads the way, with over 536,000 jobs at stake—a sector that’s already on fragile footing after decades of offshoring and automation.
The report warns that by 2026, the manufacturing sector alone could lose nearly 58,000 jobs—a 6.8 percent decline. Cities like Windsor, Guelph, Brantford, and London will feel the brunt, especially in Southwestern Ontario where many rely on auto and parts manufacturing to make ends meet.
This isn’t just about employment. The province’s GDP will take a hit, with projected growth of 0.6 percent in 2025, compared to 1.7 percent in a no-tariff scenario. A “modest recession” could be in the cards—an alarming phrase when paired with widespread job loss.
Yet, Premier Doug Ford seems unconcerned. “Let’s see what happens,” he said, brushing off the FAO’s forecasts as speculative. While it’s true that economic predictions aren’t certainties, ignoring data-based projections from independent experts is a dangerous game—especially when they’re pointing to a looming storm.
The reality is this: the economy doesn’t operate in a vacuum. Tariffs don’t just ding trade numbers—they ripple through supply chains, reduce household spending, and send shockwaves through communities already struggling with affordability and inflation. Pretending that Ontario will somehow “do better than other jurisdictions” without a proactive plan is not leadership—it’s wishful thinking.
It’s time for Ontario to brace itself. That means working with federal counterparts to de-escalate trade tensions, bolstering support for affected industries, and investing in sectors that can create resilience against external shocks. We need more than optimism—we need action.
Because if this report is even half right, the cost of inaction will be far too high.
