Canada may be in the middle of a housing boom, but Ontario is dragging down the momentum and the consequences could be severe for anyone hoping to afford a home in the years ahead.
According to a new analysis from RBC, housing starts across much of Canada are strong, with provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, Manitoba, and even the Atlantic region recording solid gains. But in Ontario, and particularly the Greater Toronto Area, new builds have collapsed down a staggering 69 percent compared to last year. That is not just a blip; it’s a red flag.
The reasons are familiar but no less troubling: sky-high development costs, expensive labour, soaring municipal fees, and building materials that remain costly. In short, it’s becoming harder and harder to get projects off the ground in Ontario. And if builders can’t build, ordinary families can’t buy or rent at anything resembling an affordable price.
This matters because housing starts aren’t just about today’s supply they’re about tomorrow’s. Large projects take years to complete, which means the shortfall we’re seeing now will echo into 2026 and beyond. The GTA may still be digesting a wave of condo completions from the pandemic era, but once that stock dries up, where will the next generation of homes come from?
Meanwhile, the federal government is promising big solutions. Prime Minister Carney’s Build Canada Homes plan is ambitious, pledging to double housing construction to 500,000 units annually with $35 billion in funding. Prefabricated homes, senior housing, student housing, reduced municipal fees on paper, it sounds like a turning point. But even the best national plans can falter if Ontario, the country’s most populous province and the heart of its housing demand, can’t get shovels in the ground.
The truth is simple: without a healthy pipeline of housing projects in Ontario, Canada’s broader affordability crisis will only get worse. Policymakers, municipalities, and developers need to recognize that the GTA slowdown is not just a regional hiccup it’s a national problem in the making.
The rest of Canada may be building at record levels, but if Ontario fails to keep up, the dream of affordable housing will slip even further out of reach.
