Canada’s F-35 Dilemma: Between Sovereignty, Strategy, and Stalled Infrastructure

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When former Defence Minister Bill Blair floated the idea of a mixed fleet earlier this year possibly supplementing or even replacing some F 35s with European models like Swedens Saab Gripen it opened a conversation worth having

Canada’s relationship with the F-35 fighter jet has been a long, complicated dance and now, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, it seems to have entered yet another awkward phase.

Defence Procurement Secretary Stephen Fuhr’s recent comments to CBC’s Rosemary Barton Live make one thing clear: Canada is not walking away from its current deal with the United States to purchase 16 F-35 jets at least not anytime soon. The aircraft are already in various stages of production, and backing out now would be both politically and financially messy.

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Fuhr was quick to clarify that this doesn’t necessarily mean the government has decided on the entire fleet of 88 jets announced by the Liberals back in 2023. A Defence spokesperson later confirmed that the commitment stands only for the 16 aircraft currently being built, while the larger program remains under review.

That review, ordered by Carney shortly after he took office, came as part of his assertive “elbows up” approach to dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump a style that has defined Carney’s foreign policy messaging so far. The prime minister’s caution likely reflects not only the delicate balance of trade relations with Washington, but also growing questions about whether Canada should continue to rely so heavily on American defense hardware.

When former Defence Minister Bill Blair floated the idea of a “mixed fleet” earlier this year possibly supplementing or even replacing some F-35s with European models like Sweden’s Saab Gripen it opened a conversation worth having. Fuhr echoed that sentiment in his CBC interview, noting that a diverse fleet could give Canada more flexibility in handling a range of threats. It’s a practical argument, especially in a world where modern warfare demands specialized tools, not one-size-fits-all machines.

But even if Ottawa decides to move forward with all 88 F-35s, there’s a serious question of where those planes will actually go. Infrastructure for Canada’s future fighter jets mainly at 4 Wing Cold Lake in Alberta and 3 Wing Bagotville in Quebec is years behind schedule. A report from the Auditor General earlier this year found both projects delayed by more than three years, with completion now expected in 2031.

National Defence has had to improvise an “interim operations plan” just to keep the program on track. That includes the purchase of movable facilities and the renovation of existing structures at Cold Lake to accommodate the first deliveries in 2028. The government even signed a $16 million contract with Raymond EMC Enclosures Ltd. to provide secure tactical enclosures by 2027 a modest but crucial step to ensure the jets have somewhere to operate before the permanent facilities are ready.

Meanwhile, the first eight F-35s will be delivered next year to Luke Air Force Base in Arizona, where Canadian pilots will train while waiting for the infrastructure back home to catch up.

The whole saga reveals a familiar tension in Canadian defense policy: the struggle to balance strategic independence with the realities of alliance politics. Fuhr insists Canada will “stand on its own two feet,” but the truth is that our procurement pipeline still flows primarily through the United States. Even with the new Defence Investment Agency (DIA), which Fuhr now leads and describes as “unique” for its independent contracting authority, Canada’s ability to chart its own path remains constrained by industrial and political dependencies that run deep.

If Carney truly wants to assert Canada’s sovereignty, he may have to do more than just review old contracts he’ll need to build the infrastructure, institutions, and alliances that make real independence possible. Until then, Canada’s F-35 story will remain what it has always been: a case study in ambition constrained by reality.

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