Advance polling in three crucial federal byelections has drawn nearly 38,000 voters, offering an early glimpse into races that could determine whether the governing Liberals secure a majority in Parliament.
Preliminary figures released by Elections Canada show that turnout has been particularly strong in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne. Approximately 18,200 voters cast ballots during the advance polling period, representing close to 20 percent of registered voters. This is a notable figure in a riding that recorded a 68 percent turnout during the 2025 general election.
In contrast, advance participation in the two Toronto-area ridings has been more modest. Scarborough Southwest saw about 10,300 early votes, or roughly 12 percent of eligible voters, while University Rosedale recorded 9,400 votes, amounting to about 10 percent turnout.
Terrebonne remains the focal point of political attention. The riding delivered one of the tightest results in recent history when Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste edged out Bloc Québécois incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné by a single vote in 2025. However, the Supreme Court of Canada later annulled that result in February, citing a clerical error involving mail-in ballot return addresses, triggering the current byelection.
Mail-in voting is again expected to play a role, with nearly 1,200 absentee ballot kits requested in Terrebonne as of early April comparable to the roughly 1,100 mail-in ballots cast there in the last general election.
The riding is also drawing attention for an unusual ballot format. Due to an influx of independent candidates many linked to the Longest Ballot Committee protest against Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system voters in Terrebonne will receive blank ballots and must write in their preferred candidate’s name. A full candidate list will be available at polling stations. In total, 48 candidates are contesting the seat, including 41 independents.
This adapted voting method has been used before, notably in a 2025 Alberta byelection where an exceptionally large number of candidates complicated traditional ballot design and vote counting.
Meanwhile, voters in the Toronto byelections will use standard printed ballots listing all candidates.
The stakes are high for the governing Liberals. A sweep of all three byelections would give them 173 seats in the House of Commons comfortably above the 172-seat threshold required for a majority government. Even winning two of the three could technically secure a majority, though it would create a delicate balance due to the neutral role of the Speaker, currently Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia, who only votes to break ties.
Such a scenario would leave the government with limited room to pass new legislation without opposition backing, though it would still maintain stability on confidence votes.
The Toronto contests were triggered by the resignations of former cabinet ministers Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair, adding further political significance to the outcomes.
With early turnout indicating strong voter engagement particularly in Terrebonne the final results could reshape the balance of power in Ottawa and define the next phase of the Liberal government under Mark Carney.
