Canada’s population has declined for the first time in recent history, according to newly released data from Statistics Canada, reflecting a significant shift in the country’s immigration dynamics.
The national statistical agency reported that the population fell by 102,436 people between January 1, 2025, and January 1, 2026. This marks the first annual population decrease recorded in modern estimates, signaling a turning point after years of steady growth.
While Canada experienced modest growth in the first half of 2025 adding just over 77,000 people this increase was offset by substantial declines in the latter half of the year. The third quarter saw a drop of more than 76,000 people, followed by an even sharper decline of over 103,000 in the final quarter.
As of the beginning of 2026, Canada’s total population stood at approximately 41.47 million.
The primary factor behind the population decrease was a sharp reduction in temporary residents, including foreign workers and international students. Their numbers fell significantly in late 2025, dropping by over 171,000 in the fourth quarter alone.
After peaking at more than 3.1 million in October 2024, the temporary resident population declined to around 2.7 million by early 2026. This shift reflects policy changes aimed at controlling rapid population growth and easing pressure on infrastructure and public services.
Additionally, the number of new permanent residents admitted during the final quarter of 2025 fell to roughly 83,000, representing a nearly 20 percent decline compared to the same period in 2024.
Compounding the decline, Canada recorded a negative natural population change in the final quarter of 2025. For the first time in years, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births, contributing further to the overall decrease.
Ontario continued to attract the largest share of new immigrants, accounting for more than 42 percent of arrivals in the fourth quarter. However, it also experienced a decline in interprovincial migration, alongside Quebec.
Quebec stood out as the only province to see an increase in new immigrants compared to the previous year’s fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Alberta maintained its position as the top destination for people relocating within Canada, marking its 14th consecutive quarter of strong interprovincial migration gains.
The population shift comes as the federal government works to recalibrate immigration levels following years of rapid expansion. Officials have acknowledged that the previous pace of growth placed considerable strain on housing, healthcare, and education systems.
Under a new multi-year plan, the government aims to significantly reduce the number of temporary residents while stabilizing permanent immigration.
Targets for temporary resident admissions are set to drop sharply from over 670,000 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026, with further reductions planned in subsequent years. Permanent resident admissions will also be capped at 380,000 annually through 2028, slightly lower than previous targets.
These measures are intended to bring the proportion of temporary residents down to below 5 percent of the total population by 2027, while maintaining permanent immigration at under 1 percent annually.
Despite the current decline, authorities have indicated that population estimates may be revised in the coming months, particularly as new immigration policies take effect. Recent measures, including efforts to help provinces retain skilled temporary workers, could influence future trends.
Even so, early projections suggest that population growth levels will remain significantly lower than those seen in 2023 and 2024, when quarterly increases were substantially higher.
Canada’s population had grown rapidly in recent years, rising from around 38 million in mid-2020 to over 41 million by 2024. Much of that growth was driven by increased immigration, introduced in part to address labor shortages.
However, policymakers have since acknowledged that the pace of expansion became difficult to sustain. The latest figures suggest that the country is now entering a period of adjustment, as it seeks to balance economic needs with long-term sustainability.
The coming years will determine whether these policy changes can stabilize population growth while addressing the pressures that prompted the shift.
