Canada’s fertility rate has dropped to its lowest level ever recorded, raising concerns about the country’s long-term demographic and economic future. According to a new report released on January 26 by Statistics Canada, the national fertility rate fell to 1.25 births per woman in 2024, placing Canada among countries classified as having “ultra-low fertility.”
Demographers use the term “ultra-low fertility” to describe countries where the total fertility rate falls below 1.30. Canada officially crossed that threshold in 2023 and remained there in 2024, despite a slower pace of decline compared to previous years. The fertility rate decreased by 1.6 percent in 2024, down from sharper drops of 5.3 percent in 2023 and 6.9 percent in 2022.
Statistics Canada attributes the ongoing decline to a combination of factors, including fewer births overall and a growing number of women who are not having children whether by personal choice, life circumstances, or because they are postponing motherhood.
One of the most striking trends highlighted in the report is the steady rise in the age at which women have their first child. In 2024, the average age of first-time mothers reached a record high of 31.7 years, continuing a decades-long upward trend.
The data also shows that motherhood is becoming less common across many age groups. In 2024, more than half (51 percent) of Canadian women aged 20 to 49 had no children. This included: 88.5 percent of women in their 20s, 43.2 percent of women in their 30s and 23.6 percent of women in their 40s.
Beyond childbearing years, childlessness has also increased. Among women aged 50 and older, the proportion who never had children rose from 14.1 percent in 1990 to 17.4 percent in 2022, reflecting long-term social shifts.
The report points to education and employment as key influences on fertility patterns. Women with university degrees and those who are employed were less likely to have children, a trend Statistics Canada links to delayed family formation as young adults prioritize higher education and career development.
At the same time, religious practice appears to be associated with higher fertility. Women who identify as religious were more likely to have children, with the agency noting that religious values can significantly shape decisions around parenthood.
Despite declining birth rates, many women still express a desire to have children. About half of women aged 20 to 49 said they wanted to become mothers, roughly matching the proportion who currently have no children. However, Statistics Canada emphasized a growing “gap between intentions and reality,” suggesting that social and economic barriers often prevent plans for parenthood from being realized.
Even among women in their 40s, around 10 percent said they hoped to have children, though the report cautioned that biological limits and increased health risks make late pregnancies less likely.
The findings underscore that fertility trends are shaped by more than personal choice alone. Factors such as marital status, education, career paths, religious involvement, and migration all play a role in shaping family outcomes.
“For many women under 40, education and career trajectories can conflict with family plans,” the report noted, adding that these pressures often force women to choose between professional advancement and having children.
As Canada joins a growing group of low-fertility countries worldwide, the report highlights the need for broader discussions around work-life balance, family support policies, and the social conditions that influence decisions about parenthood.
